New Research: Sea Levels in Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific Underestimated by up to 1.5 Meters

A comprehensive analysis published in Nature on March 4, 2026, has revealed that global sea levels are significantly higher than previously understood. The study, led by Dr. Philip Minderhoud of Wageningen University and PhD researcher Katharina Seeger, indicates that a widespread reliance on inaccurate land elevation models has led to a consistent underestimation of ocean levels worldwide.

The research examined 385 pieces of peer-reviewed scientific literature released between 2009 and 2025. It found that over 90% of these studies did not utilise local, direct measurements of sea levels. Instead, they relied on global geoid models, mathematical estimates of the Earth's shape based on gravity and rotation, which do not account for physical variables such as wind patterns, ocean currents, water temperature, or salinity.

On a global scale, the analysis shows that ocean levels are an average of 30cm higher than previously believed. However, the discrepancy is significantly more pronounced in the Global South. In regions including Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, sea levels were found to be between 100cm and 150cm higher than previous estimates. In some extreme cases, the difference between commonly assumed levels and actual measured coastal levels reached as much as 550cm to 760cm.

These revised calculations have immediate implications for coastal risk assessments. The study found that with a relative sea level rise of 1 meter, 37% more coastal area will fall below the waterline than earlier projections suggested.

This change in baseline data affects an estimated 132 million individuals who live in these newly identified high-risk zones.

The researchers described the reliance on geoid models as an "interdisciplinary blind spot" and noted that many of the inaccurate studies are referenced in the most recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To address this, the study includes updated coastal elevation data for global use, intended to inform more accurate climate change policies and coastal hazard studies.